There's been a lot of comment in the blogosphere about NBC News piece on the Trump campaign cutting ties with pollsters after recent internal numbers leaked.
Near the end of his blog post today on the NBC article, Digby refers to a March 4th, 2019 piece in the Daily Beast by Gideon Resnick, in which Resnick quotes the Trump campaign's top pollster:
“When you really drill down on this election, if you change the vote in five counties, four in Florida, one in Michigan, we’d be having a totally opposite conversation right now,” Fabrizio said of the race. “For all the money that was spent, for the all the effort that was made, literally four counties in Florida, one county in Michigan puts us at 261 [electoral] votes and makes Hillary Clinton the president. So, remember that.”
In Michigan, Fabrizio is likely referring to Macomb County, which neighbors Detroit, where Trump beat Clinton by nearly 50,000 votes. The county voted for President Obama twice and was the birthplace of Reagan Democrats. The vote differential here played a huge role in the small 10,000-vote margin by which Trump won Michigan overall.
A statement by Fabrizio earlier in the article was the one that really caught my attention when I first read it in March:
Trump won the Electoral College with a 10,000-vote margin in Michigan, a 22,000-vote margin in Wisconsin and a 46,000-vote margin in Pennsylvania.
I don't disagree with the four counties in Florida. And as the quotes above imply, there were counties in western Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that were very close.
It's also important to remember that Hillary flipped several counties, not to mention states, that hadn't gone democrat in several decades.
One thing I've been trying to drill down on, which I've been trying to find a report on to share with you, is Trump's current digital campaign. I heard a report on SiriusXM stating that Brad Parscale has spent, get this: 8Xs more than all of the democratic candidates combined to date. The ads have been spent on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and I believe Yahoo. This was after Facebook had taken down that plethora of fake accounts.
That's important to remember in light of comments made by Trump 2020 campaign chairman Brad Parscale regarding the polls referred to in the NBC Story:
“These leaked numbers are ancient, in campaign terms, from months-old polling that began in March before two major events had occurred: the release of the summary of the Mueller report exonerating the President, and the beginning of the Democrat candidates defining themselves with their far-left policy message,” he said.
Parscale also claimed the campaign has seen “huge swings in the President’s favor across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies espoused by the Democrats.” As an example, he said that a “plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.”
When Parscale speaks, I listen. His operation was better than what the Democratic veterans had in place in 2016. John Podesta just wasn't up to a modern digital campaign.
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